We hear a lot about the economic stimulus package and rightfully so, it is the moment of change that we pin our hopes for an improved economy to. What is it going to do for the fundamental problem of freight volume has not been addressed. This is an important question. In the past, one of the first predictors of depressed economy’s new health has been the growth in freight. But today that is simply not the case and the stimulus package is aimed entirely differently. It’s not going to deliver a radical change to freight volume and the trucking industry.

What it might do is help to stabilize and slowly grow industries that will create freight volume. The stimulus package has only begun to work upon the economy and as a result,
we simply cannot expect to see much change before the onset of 2010. The major areas of growth targeted by the package are energy, automotive, and infrastructure. Of these three, infrastructure has the most potential to impact freight volumes, both directly and indirectly, as long as automotive continues to struggle. Directly, because infrastructure projects will demand materials that need to be shipped. Indirectly, because successful infrastructure will increase jobs and consumer confidence, which may then increase spending and retail sales. Freight volumes will remain constant for the foreseeable futures and then, as an indirect effect of the stimulus package they may increase.

At the moment, it’s enough to know where we stand and plan for the future.

Transportation companies of all kinds were among the first to feel the effects of economic slowdown. Freight volumes began to be affected as early as 2007 and they have only continued to lower as consumers have reduced their spending further and further. The good news is that economists and other insiders are suggesting that we have finally found the bottom of our economic freefall.

What does this mean for our freight volumes? Well not as much as you might think. All sorts of freight carriers are reporting a slight improvement from last quarter’s extremely weak freight levels. Unfortunately no one is seeing the traditional peak in freight volumes that comes with back to school sales to signal the beginning of a carrier’s busy season. Some companies are predicting that it simply won’t come. Retailer inventories may be so affected by the economy that they are able to restock slowly without triggering the expected spike. This in turn, means that freight volumes may stay low through what is normally a carrier’s busy season. They may be low, but crucially, steady. Though there is little growth predicted as the economy comes out of free fall, cuts are waning, markets are firming, and freight volumes are rising. The transportation industry may not lead the economy out of its depression this time, but its fortunes will continue to rise steadily into the future.